November 4-5, 2024 -- ELECTION DAY PREDICTION

Among the basics taught in political science is that historical trends are much more important in predicting the outcome of an election than opinion polls. We have long gone past the era when there were three political pollsters -- Gallup, Roper, and Harris -- that claimed independence even though they actually were far from it. Today, the political prognostication field is jam-packed with junk polling firms, most of which are creations of right-wing groups connected to political action committees and even foreign-based malevolent actors.

Based on past presidential elections that saw one of the two major parties entering the presidential race after having suffered a major internal rift, landslide victories for the opposing party ensued. Let's go to the historical record.

In 1964, the Republican Party had been torn asunder after the nomination of the far-right Senator Barry Goldwater as the presidential nominee. Republican stalwarts like New York Governor Nelson Rockefeller and Michigan Governor George Romney (the father of Mitt Romney) refused to endorse Goldwater. Other establishment Republicans, including former President Dwight D. Eisenhower, remained reluctant to publicly support Goldwater, although the former president did cut one TV ad for Goldwater late in the campaign. Ike remained miffed over a question posed to Goldwater about a future presidential candidacy for Eisenhower's younger brother, Milton S. Eisenhower. Goldwater's response that "One Eisenhower in a generation is enough" left Ike steaming. Goldwater's attacks on Social Security resulted in Democratic incumbent Lyndon Johnson, a strong backer of the retirement system, receiving 23,406 write-in votes in Republican primaries in 1964. Just as is the case with Donald Trump now, Goldwater's sanity was in question with one Democratic slogan about Goldwater being, "In your guts, you know he's nuts."




The rift in the Republican Party resulted in Johnson being elected in a landslide. Goldwater only managed to win his home state of Arizona and the Deep South, where a few Ku Klux Klan politicians had avidly endorsed Goldwater.

In 1972, it was the Democratic Party that faced a huge schism resulting from the nomination of South Dakota Senator George McGovern to challenge incumbent Republican President Richard Nixon. McGovern ran on a platform that emphasized his commitment to end U.S. involvement in the Vietnam War. The party still suffered from the political wounds of 1968 campaign that saw LBJ decline to run for another term, presidential candidate Robert F. Kennedy being assassinated in Los Angeles after having just won the California primary, and McGovern -- who had backed Kennedy and ensured that he would win the South Dakota primary that was held the same day as California's, being lukewarm on the Democratic candidacy of Vice President Hubert Humphrey. The Democratic rift carried over to 1972 with McGovern winning the nomination, scrapping his running mate Senator Thomas Eagleton of Missouri over the revelation that Eagleton had been treated for depression, and McGovern's choosing Kennedy family in-law Sargent Shriver to replace the senator. Humphrey was also pissed off when McGovern, after winning the California primary, offered Humphrey the vice





presidential slot. There is some informed speculation that Humphrey was so infuriated with McGovern that he backed Nixon for re-election. At least that is what Humphrey is said to have told Nixon in a post-election conversation. Former President Lyndon Johnson backed North Carolina Governor Tery Sanford over his former vice president, Humphrey, and his 1968 running mate Senator Ed Muskie of Maine. The result of the internal Democratic Party rift was a landslide victory for Nixon in the 1972 election, with McGovern only winning Massachusetts and the District of Columbia. After Nixon's and Vice President Spiro Agnew's resignations over corruption scandals, the Democrats saw the Republicans routed in the 1974 mid-term election.

The Democrats saw 1972 repeated to some degree in 1984. The challenge mounted by Senator Edward Kennedy against incumbent Democratic President Jimmy Carter in 1980 remained a festering wound inside the party in 1984. Carter's vice president, Walter Mondale, who ran in 1984, was miffed over Kennedy's opposition to the Carter-Mondale administration and their re-election bid. There was little love lost between Mondale and his main challenger, Senator Gary Hart of Colorado. Mondale's choice of New York Congresswoman Geraldine Ferraro was not popular with many Democratic Party stalwarts. The finances of Ferraro's husband, Queens-based real estate developer John Zaccaro, also came under scrutiny. In retrospect, Zaccaro was a choir boy compared to another real estate developer from Queens who would later occupy the Oval Office. Establishment Democrats wanted Mondale to choose a safer veep candidate like Massachusetts Governor Michael Dukakis, Texas Senator Lloyd Bentsen, or his primary opponent, Hart -- who indicated that asked would accept such an offer. Mondale stuck to his guns, alienating many within his party.

The 1984 results were a landslide for incumbent President Ronald Reagan, who won every state with the exception of Mondale's home state of Minnesota and the District of Columbia.

Although the elections of 1964, 1972, and 1984 were landslides for the incumbents because of dissension within the ranks of the opposing party, they were love fests compared to this year. Not only has Donald Trump's former Vice President, Mike Pence, refused to endorse him but a virtual "Who's Who" of Republicans with legacy GOP names like Bush, Cheney, Reagan, Ford, Eisenhower, Taft, Hoover, McCain, Goldwater, Landon Kassebaum, and Willkie have endorsed the Democratic ticket of Kamala Harris and Tim Walz. They are joined by Trump's niece and nephew. There has never been a presidential candidate for office showing the sharp mental decline of Trump nor the criminal record of 34 convictions, along with two impeachments and an adjudication of sexual assault. Trump's declaration of war against the U.S. Constitution; his praise for dictators, Adolf Hitler, the Confederacy, and Nazis; and the fact that scores of his closest presidential aides have condemned his actions are unprecedented in American history. With the examples of 1964, 1972, and 1984 as a basis, we are looking at a very possible landslide victory for Harris-Walz this week and the electoral vote map may rival those of other years when the challenging party was wracked by internal divisions and feuds.

Harris inherited a highly competent ground operation from President Biden and proceeded to expand that team to all 50 states and DC. Trump, on the other hand, replaced the Republican National Committee with his cronies and in-laws and outsourced his ground operation to incompetent con artists like Elon Musk and Charlie Kirk. From the way Trump surrogates are sniveling, yelling, and kvetching on the air, we can assume they've all read the Republican internal polls and are colicky over the results.

So, all in all, will 2024 follow the path of 1964, 1972, and 1984? We will soon find out.